The past twelve months have seen phenomenal growth in house prices all around Australia, but especially in certain coveted parts of our beautiful city, Sydney.
In Mosman, home owners have watched their treasured properties gain in value, with median house prices growing by up to 35 per cent and median prices for apartments climbing by over 20 per cent in the second semester of 2021.
At the same time, buyers have been enjoying the opportunities afforded by low interest rates and borrower-friendly banks, snapping up some fabulous properties both on and off market all over Sydney.
In fact, there were over 900 reported transactions between January 1 and December 1, 2020 in Mosman alone. Impressive.
But, will these trends continue over the coming year? A few key factors will play a role in determining where this housing market of ours is heading in 2022.
Mosman is a place people want to live. Its natural beauty, excellent services, and proximity to the cultural and economic heart of the city make it desirable for people from all walks of life.
Young families, especially, are aware of the reputation of the schools in the area, with Mosman listed in the top ten Sydney high-school catchment areas.
This means demand. People want to own a home in Mosman. And with a limited supply, this demand drives the market upwards and onwards.
Luxury homes, in particular, are expected to follow the current upward trend as demand outstrips supply in both the purchase and rental markets.
The larger block sizes, unbeatable views, and sense of solidity that suburbs like Mosman provide appeal to house hunters with deep pockets and a desire to feel that they have found their forever haven.
Interest rates and regulator intervention
Recent rises in fixed-rate mortgage prices are a hint of what is to come if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its nerve. The plan is to gradually push interest rates back up to 1.25% by mid-2023.
Some analysts are certain that this will lead to more sustainable capital growth after the peak pace of 2021.
In addition, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) is keen to step in and place new restrictions on lenders. This will, of course, also tend to slow the market down. In fact, some banks are already making very conservative predictions about house-prices rises.
The big four are predicting single-figure percentage rises for 2022 after last year’s astonishing double figures.
So yes, things will probably slow down.
But slowing down does not mean getting sluggish.
And as it will be some time before interest rate hikes and regulator reins start to bite, 2022 is still set to be a quietly confident year for the sector.
The dreaded lurgy
Much as we all would have loved to drop Covid off and bid it adieu in 2021, there are still a lot of unknowns regarding the virus, and the idea that new variants may emerge and impact our lives in the coming year is creating a degree of uncertainty.
So much so, in fact, that some analysts are suggesting that the RBA’s plans to continue to raise interest rates and APRA’s plans to, shall we say, encourage lender prudence might be put on hold while the country comes to terms with yet another wave of virally-induced wobbles in consumer confidence.
Such reticence to halt the proverbial fire could, of course, mean that prices continue to soar, especially in solid, sought-after areas like Mosman, which is great news for owners and investors, but perhaps not so hot for buyers.
One interesting effect of our tentative emergence from constant lockdowns will be a flux of younger renters returning to the market after having run back to the family home to weather the Covid storm.
Just how much this will affect the rental market remains to be seen, but in desirable suburbs there is likely to be a greater demand than supply, pushing the market forward and heralding solid rental returns for investors.
In Mosman, this applies predominantly to house rentals, but higher interest rates and more restrictions on lending may translate into a more vigorous rental market, especially in premium suburbs, and bring an end to the current market dip.
A final word
Given the trends towards steady growth, and the desirability of our suburb, the Mosman housing market is unlikely to wither any time soon, with even conservative forecasters predicting healthy, though perhaps not quite meteoric, growth for 2022.
In fact, the real estate market throughout Australia has proven resilient so far, and despite a handful of economic forecasters warning us that a bear is a-coming, we are, according to most experts, likely to see solid economic growth bolster the Sydney property market well into 2023.
If you would like to talk to our team about the local Mosman market and what these predictions mean for you and your property, connect with us here.
Or to find out more about the Mosman property market Download our Selling a property in Mosman Guide here.
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